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New Year's Six

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  • New Year's Six

    I figured I'd throw out my New Year's Six and playoff thoughts before the year starts.

    1. There aren't any Group of Five teams good enough to make the playoffs. The NY6 rep will probably come from the AAC or MWC.

    The candidates for the NY6:

    UCF- Not as good as before, but probably still wins their division.

    Houston- They get Memphis in Texas and probably win the West. They play at UCF and that might mean a return trip to try to win a conference title. I don't know if King, Holgorsen, and last year's leaky D takes the AAC.

    Boise State- The schedule isn't overbearing and the league is good enough, but they need fewer losses than the AAC winner.

    Fresno State and San Diego State- They have the best shots to win their division, but I still think the bid goes to the AAC.

    2. No independent playoff team this year.

    Notre Dame- 10-2 or better gets them in the NY6.

    Army- I don't think they're great and the schedule isn't overpowering. They probably would need to beat Michigan. I don't know that a close game and 11-1 gets them into the NY6. 10-2 sure won't.

    3. I used to call the ACC, the All Crap Conference. It's now the almost All Crap Conference.

    Clemson- They win the league and make the playoffs. I don't think anybody else stands a chance to make the NY6. Syracuse and the rest just aren't good enough and none of them will win enough to get in.

    4. The Big 12 has enough teams that can play O and beat you that they'll knock each other out of the playoffs.

    Oklahoma and Texas- They're a package deal. Both can make the NY6 and they just might do it. I think there are enough loseable games for both that they drop a few. I just can't see any of the other teams winning enough to get in the NY6, but Baylor does have the kind of schedule to sneak in.

    5. Count me out for the Nebraska hype and any of the other Big 10 West teams. Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State will probably have the best Big 10 talent for the rest of my life.

    Ohio State- They still have the best talent in the league. I don't think Fields is as good as Haskins, but I'll go with them to make the playoffs and win the Big 10.

    Michigan- They should beat Notre Dame and they do get the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor. They're probably good enough to beat Penn State breaking in a new QB, but I'm not taking them in the Big 10 until I see they can beat the Top 10 type teams.

    6. No Oregon love here! Them winning the Pac-12 talk is almost as bad as the Nebraska talk. For all his talent, Herbert doesn't play up to it for a full 60 minutes. They're 3-9 on the road the last 2 years and play all of their toughest games away from Eugene. Auburn probably beats them to start the year off.

    Stanford- They're probably going to be down a little this year, but they do get most of their toughest games at home. Shaw is a good enough of a coach that I'll give them a slight maybe to win the Pac-12.

    Utah- They should win the South. USC has a lot of talent, but the odds are that Helton is done after this year. I don't think Utah will win the Pac-12, but Whittingham is a good enough coach that they can possibly beat a more talented team in the title game.

    Washington- Yeah the team that the experts want to keep devaluing. A lot of guys didn't come back, but QB play might be better. The offense will probably be better. You deserve the benefit of the doubt to reload on D when you're one of the nation's best every year. They're not going to lose to Wazzu, Utah, or Oregon in Seattle. The only risks for road games is at Stanford and Arizona if they still have desert sickness, but that's usually more about playing in Tempe. My vote for Pac-12 champs and a return to the playoffs.

    7. My NY6 list for the SEC is a lot bigger than the playoff list. None of them probably beat 'Bama for the SEC. A&M and Auburn will probably lose too many games for me to say them.

    Alabama- My pick for the SEC and making the playoffs.

    Georgia- They're real good. I just don't think they make the playoffs without winning the SEC.

    Florida- The Gators are good and will fight for the NY6.

    Missouri- They're not as good, but the schedule might get them the wins to get in the NY6.

    LSU- I don't think they win the West, but they might get in the NY6.

    I guess I'll take these 12 for the NY6:

    Houston- I'm assuming King gets back to 100% and he can make a huge difference in the Group of 5.

    Notre Dame- Not as good as last year, but a good record and a name.

    Clemson- Almost a shoo-in.

    Oklahoma and Texas- I'm calling for a Big 12 rat that they find a way for both teams to win 10 games and get in. That means the 2nd place team wins the title. A 9-4 2nd place team might lose out to another conference.

    Ohio State and Michigan- The Big 10 will get 2 in. Penn State won't be good enough.

    Washington- They're likely the only team in the Pac-12 to win 10 games. People want to hype the Ducks, but there's a reason why Vegas has the Huskies with the highest wins over/under in the Pac-12.

    Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and LSU- They'll probably all get to 9 wins. 9 in the SEC trumps 9 in other leagues. There aren't a lot of teams likely to win 10 games in football.

    Not much changes in football very fast.

    Last edited by lonny23; 07-12-2019, 10:23 PM.