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*** Official Longview Lobo Thread - Home of LOBO Nation ***
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Great things are ahead for LISD!!!! The dawn of a new era is possible and it’s up to the community, parents, teachers and alumni to help make it come into reality! ….The future is at stake and this will be one of the biggest games Longview has ever played in! It’s that important! Let’s go Lobo Nation!Comment
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Finally had a day to relax so went diving into the TEA numbers since they’re now posted for the 2023 school year. Just a note that the numbers are not officially official, and they will not represent anything come this coming October for Snapshot day but it does give a little bit of an insight on how things are going to start shaping out. These also don’t include any alt campuses that schools must include in certain ways.
Just a reminder of where the numbers were at last go around in terms of the cut off:
6A cut off: 2,220
5A D1 cut off: 1922
Run down as of now…
District 1:
Clint Horizon - 1,677
El Paso Bel Air - 1,839
El Paso Del Valle - 1,957
El Paso Hanks - 1,454
El Paso Parkland - 1,674
El Paso Ysleta - 1,342
Last go around we talked about there potentially not being any El Paso schools in 5A D1. That might be possible again, depending if they’re wanting to opt up this go around as well. Obviously the numbers are just not there, and we’re trending in no EP schools in D1. Just a matter of time it feels.
District 2:
Abilene - 1,966
Amarillo - 2,170
Amarillo Caprock - 2,090
Amarillo Tascosa - 2,187
Lubbock Cooper - 2,117
Lubbock Coronado - 1,960
Lubbock Monterey - 2,114
District looks to be about the same. Can’t imagine the 5A D1 cut off raising that high to swallow Abilene and the like. Lubbock Cooper ISD has a new school opening (Liberty) so just something to watch for them.
District 3:
Aledo - 1,622
Azle - 2,054
Burleson Centennial - 2,104
Denton Ryan - 2,194
Fort Worth South Hills - 1,880
Justin Northwest - 2,264
Lewisville The Colony - 1,895
Saginaw - 2,194
White Settlement Brewer - 2,183
The big monsters of the region and district, Aledo and Denton Ryan, will have all eyes on them this go around. Aledo’s number looks small (they were over 2,090 in official numbers). Their projection of official numbers is over 2,300 in fall of 2023. Will it happen, we’ll see. But I would not expect them in 5A D1 next go around. Ryan is also expected to be in 6A the next go around with the way Denton ISD is growing. South Hills could easily fall to D2 this next go around. Northwest is definitely headed to 6A.
District 4:
Cleburne - 1,976
Granbury - 2,202
Killeen - 2,076
Killeen Ellison - 1,682
Killeen Shoemaker - 2,176
Lake Belton - 2,181
Midlothian - 1,994
Red Oak - 2,160
Waco - 2,011
Ellison is definitely dropping to 5A D2. I still expect this district to move back over to Region II, just depending if El Paso has a district or not, in the next go around. It just makes the most sense. Would be be shocked if any of the other schools dropped or went up. K
District 5:
Carrollton Newman Smith - 1,933
Carrollton RL Turner - 2,107
Dallas Bryan Adams - 2,271
Dallas Molina - 2,074
Dallas Sunset - 2,187
Dallas WT White - 2,149
Mansfield Timebrview - 1,864
North Richland Hills Birdville - 2,086
North Richland Hills Richland - 2,016
Timberview could easily see this alignment a one and done in 5A D1 if their number holds. Bryan Adams having an enrollment that high is a little surprising.
District 6:
Frisco - 2,081
Frisco Centennial - 2,082
Frisco Heritage - 2,127
Frisco Lebanon Trail - 2,136
Frisco Liberty - 1,846
Frisco Lone Star - 2,036
Frisco Reedy - 2,275
Frisco Wakeland - 2,147
Sherman - 2,155
Sherman is growing, fast. I would suspect they move up. Doubt Reedy actually goes up, but wouldn’t be shocked to see Liberty drop to D2.
District 7:
Forney - 2,272
Lancaster - 2,250
Longview - 2,170
Lufkin - 2,135
McKinney North - 2,156
North Mesquite - 2,087
Tyler - 2,164
West Mesquite - 2,172
Forney is undoubtedly going up. Lancaster is going to be really, really close. No idea what the projections are for McNorth or West Mesquite but still two to keep an eye on. Longview will be close again, as it has been the last couple go arounds, but I suspect we’ll stay in 5A D1.
District 8:
Baytown Goose Creek - 2,223
Baytown Lee - 1,845
Baytown Sterling - 2,098
Crosby - 1,937
Humble Kingwood Park - 1,950
La Porte - 2,069
Mont Belvieu Barbers Hill - 1,972
New Caney Porter - 2,209
Port Arthur Memorial - 2,116
Lee has 5A D2 numbers but they’ll stay in 5A as they did this go around. I really don’t think we’ll see this group of schools with us again in 2024-25 but who knows. Porter will see their number start to drop some with the opening of New Caney West Fork.
Other schools to watch:
Highland Park: 2,252
DeSoto: 2,216 (They were at 2781 last go around, so I’m assuming there’s another school they add)
Cedar Hill: 2,197 (They were at 2635 last go around, so I’m assuming there’s another school they add)
College Station: 2,134
A&M Consolidated: 2,139
Crandall: 1,707
D1 has potential to look extremely different in 2023-2024. If El Paso drops all to D2, everything will have to be moved over. Denton Ryan and Aledo moving up, along with Northwest and then FW South Hills dropping, is dramatically change that district. It does look like Denton High will move up to D1 this go around. You almost have to move the two North Richland Hills schools back over to R1. Ellison dropping, but Harker Heights might be moving down with the new Killeen ISD school taking away their numbers. Crandall’s growth being next to Forney ISD is definitely a strong possibility to move up. I really think Lancaster is going to move up along with Forney. Surely they don’t put Lufkin back in our DFW district. A&M and College Station just makes sense for them to stick to, especially with Magnolia schools expected to move up. Do they finally put the Austin schools into Region II for 5A D1? Would make sense imo, especially with the Killeen/Belton/Waco schools. Could we finally get Red Oak and Midlothian in our district? Lots of questions to come no doubt.
A plot twist of a district would be Longview, Tyler, Lufkin, College Station, A&M Consolidated, Killeen, Killeen Shoemaker and Waco.
Last edited by Da Rose; 05-28-2023, 04:17 PM.Comment
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I'll tell yall someone else that impressed me this spring....
It's not varsity, its JV, but great news for anyone losing much if any sleep over the Bauer departure.
2026 ATH Jassiah Hill. Now I've tooted his horn before but he played corner this spring. Man he is a gem in that 2026 class.
I only bring it up because we all know that we'll have to replace the secondary going into next season. '25 Morrow would replace Chase Smith, that's pretty much a given. '25 CB Ledeal Kenney would presumably takeover a starting corner spot. He won't wow you with length but I like his game. S Willie Nelson, S Buddha Garrett and CB Javion Robertson would have to be replaced though. Don't forget that Robert White is a stud in that '26 class too at safety. I think he'd do well at FS taking over for Willie Nelson.
I'll go ahead and say that Hill ultimately wins a starting CB spot, replacing Robertson. So then that leaves Buddha Garrett's safety position...
I almost feel like that position would have to go to one of those '25 WRs, specifically Jailynn Taylor or Mekhi Stewart. For one, both have history in the secondary. 2nd....the WR room is about to start seeing a lot of future D1 players starting with the incoming freshmen ('27 class). Willing to bet that you will see at least one on varsity as a sophomore.
But with the season that I believe Mekhi Stewart is about to have....I doubt that we'll want to move him. That leaves Taylor....and also goes back to why I've supported him playing DB instead of WR this year.
So, a possible 2024 secondary of:
'25 CB Ledeal Kenney
'26 CB Jassiah Hill
'26 S Robert White
'25 S Jailynn Taylor
'25 Jack Jamayis Morrow
That's not bad. Will it be on the level of the current secondary? No...but then again you're talking about a secondary that has the potential to be the best we've seen around here. Next years' secondary will still be pretty good.
Longview gonna Longview.👍 6Comment
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