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  • Originally posted by LoboFan07 View Post
    With it being the halfway point, and realignment numbers due in October, thought I'd take a quick look at the numbers reported in Oct 2020 just to get an idea of what we might have going into the next alignment.

    Remember 6A and above is 2,220. 5A as a whole is 1,230 to 2,219, with Division I being 1,922 to 2,219 and Division II being 1,230 to 1,921. This will almost definitely go up again.

    2018 to 2020 went up 30 students. 2016 to 2018 went up 40 students. 2014 to 2016 went up 50 students. So I think we can count on it being anywhere between 20 to 40 students, just based on the last couple of alignments.

    Just looking at 6A/5A D1/5A D2 that relates to us. Blue means has 5A Division I numbers (from the 2020 realignment numbers) (if they aren't in 5A D1), Red means 5A Division II numbers, Green means 6A numbers.

    This is only TEA numbers. So not all of these will be exactly correct, and I'm not adding any second campus stuff (like LEAD for us).

    5A DIVISION I
    District 4 (throwing this district in here as well, since there were a lot of rumors of Longview being in a district with Mansfield ISD/Midlothian/Red Oak last time around)
    Burleson Centennial - 2,003
    Colleyville Heritage - 1,879
    Mansfield Legacy - 2,378
    Mansfield Summit - 1,999
    Midlothian 2,010
    North Richland Hills Birdville - 2,060
    North Richland Hills Richland - 2,189
    Red Oak - 1,960

    District 5 -
    Denton - 2.023
    Denton Ryan - 2,197
    Frisco Centennial - 2,092
    Frisco Heritage - 2,102
    Frisco Independence - 2,278
    Frisco Lone Star - 2,147
    Frisco Reedy - 2,100
    Frisco Wakeland - 2,099
    Lewisville The Colony - 2.038

    District 6
    Carrollton Newman Smith - 1.992
    Carrollton R.L. Turner - 2.135
    Dallas Bryan Adams - 2,215
    Dallas Molina - 2,155
    Dallas Samuell - 1,940
    Dallas Sunset - 2,078
    Dallas WT White - 2,060
    Dallas Woodrow Wilson - 1,899
    Lancaster - 2,193

    District 7
    Highland Park - 2,212
    Longview - 2,147
    McKinney North - 2,171
    Sherman - 2,015
    Tyler - 2,073
    West Mesquite - 2,272
    Wylie East - 2,223

    District 8
    Cleveland - 2,262
    College Station - 2,069
    Conroe Caney Creek - 2,159
    Lufkin - 2,131
    Magnolia - 2,035
    Magnolia West - 2,099
    New Caney - 2,131
    New Caney Porter - 2,218
    Waller - 2,198

    5A DIVISION II
    District 4 - (just doing Carrollton ISD)
    Carrollton Creekview - 1,724

    District 5 -
    Aledo - 1.428
    Mansfield Timberview - 1,890
    Waco University - 1,763

    District 6 -
    Dallas Adamson - 1,558
    Dallas Conrad - 1,274
    Dallas Hillcrest - 1.488
    Dallas Jefferson - 1,606
    Dallas Kimball - 1,436
    Dallas Seagoville - 1,643
    Dallas South Oak Cliff - 1,421
    Dallas Spruce - 1,797
    Mesquite Poteet - 1,751

    District 7 -
    Denison - 1,323
    Frisco - 1,836
    Frisco Lebanon Trail - 1,886
    Frisco Liberty - 2,002
    Frisco Memorial - 1,821
    Lake Dallas - 1,250
    Lucas Lovejoy - 1,569
    Princeton - 1,607
    Prosper Rock Hill - 2,017

    District 8 -
    Corsicana - 1,712
    Crandall - 1,392
    Ennis - 1,719
    Forney - 1,749
    Greenville - 1,405
    North Forney - 2,043
    Royse City - 2,048
    Sulphur Springs - 1,249

    District 9 -
    Hallsville - 1,413
    Jacksonville - 1,222
    Longview Pine Tree - 1,330
    Marshall - 1,391
    Mount Pleasant - 1,570
    Nacogdoches - 1,739
    Texas High - 1,770
    Whitehouse - 1,535

    District 10
    Bryan Rudder - 1,683
    College Station A&M Consolidated - 1,897
    Huntsville - 1,734
    Lamar Fulshear - 1,687
    Montgomery - 1,516
    Montgomery Lake Creek - 1,463
    Rosenburg Lamar Consolidated - 1,787

    6A - Only looking at the ones that realistically have a chance to drop
    District 7 -
    Dallas Jesuit - Unable to find recs, but they were right on the bubble last go around

    District 10 -
    Dallas Skyline - 4,147
    Mesquite - 2,571
    Mesquite Horn - 3,101
    North Mesquite - 2,401
    Rockwall - 2,847
    Rockwall Heath - 2,626
    Tyler Legacy - 2,351

    District 11 -
    Cedar Hill - 2,277
    DeSoto - 2,800
    Duncanville - 4,468
    Mansfield - 2,527
    Mansfield Lake Ridge - 2,622
    Waco - 2,122
    Waco Midway - 2,499
    Waxahachie - 2,602

    District 12 -
    Belton - 2,884
    Bryan - 2,392
    Copperas Cove - 2,205
    Temple - 2,292

    District 15 -
    Tomball - 2,341
    Tomball Memorial - 2,555

    So to sum things up.

    Longview, I would bet on staying 5A Division I for the foreseeable future. The number I got from the high school this week were even lower than that number reported in October. But who knows with how they're counting LEAD (which is only about 100/150, but obviously that matters a lot when you're close to the bubble...but from the sounds of it they only counted half of that last go around?).

    So assuming Longview stays 5A, let's look at what we have for a potential district.

    We know Tyler is not going anywhere, and we are tied to them. The question would be is anyone joining us from East Texas? Legacy isn't going to be unless there's a MASSIVE jump in the 6A cut off, is not going to happen. Lufkin will stay south until we get more than a couple East Texas squads in the same division. And no in 5A Division II looks ready to make the jump.

    So we look west.

    The big stand out in our district right away is that West Mesquite and Wylie East both currently have 6A numbers. West Mesquite is about 50 above the 2020 cutoff and Wylie East is 3. East might survive one more go around, but they're destined for 6A soon. West looks like an almost lock for 6A.

    Royse City and North Forney are both currently sitting in 5A D1 numbers. They're a virtual lock for 5A Division I...and they will almost assuredly be with us. North Forney is an absolute lock to be with us. I would assume the same with Royse City unless something weird happens and they put them in with the Frisco schools or something? I dunno, I would bet on Royse City and North Forney both being in our district.

    Looking at the rest of our current district, Sherman and McKinney North both look like locks for 5A D1 this next go around. Highland Park is right on that thresh hold again. We'll see, but obviously we all know they'll find a way to stay 5A D1. I think the bigger question is does Highland Park stay with us out east or do they get moved to say, the DISD district and move perhaps Lancaster out East? With Woodrow Wilson dropping to 5A D2 likely, do they just move HP into that district regardless and leave us with a 6-team district? Honestly, all three are possible.

    Now how will the Region II landscape change?

    Currently Mansfield Legacy has 6A numbers and Colleyville Heritage has 5A D2 numbers. If those stay, do they move Denton ISD back to Region I?
    It looks as if Frisco ISD will have Frisco Liberty moving up to 5A D1, and there's a real real possibility of Independence moving to 6A up. But then again, remember they do have another school opening in 2022 that will change some of those numbers.

    Prosper Rock Hill will almost assuredly be jumping from 5A DII to 6A this go around. If not, it will be one a stop gap, but they could be placed in that Frisco district as well. It really doesn't look like there's many schools, outside of Waco and Copperas Cove, in our general area that could be dropping from 6A.

    For what it's worth, as well, https://twitter.com/Texas_HS_Sports/...09464502411264

    This person has Sherman way high than the TEA website. If Sherman is this high, and ends up going 6A, I would expect both Highland Park and Lancaster to be in the same district with us.
    Great work as always. One question: isn't Dallas Jesuit mandated to play at the highest level (6A currently) as a requisite for them playing in the UIL?
    Last edited by slcdragonfan; 04-15-2021, 08:44 AM.
    "There is always light, if only we are brave enough to see it, if only we are brave enough to be it"--Amanda Gorman

    Comment


    • Originally posted by slcdragonfan View Post

      Great work as always. One question: isn't Dallas Jesuit mandates.to play at the highest level (6A currently) as a requisite for them plauong on the UIL?
      Correct

      Comment


      • Originally posted by slcdragonfan View Post

        Great work as always. One question: isn't Dallas Jesuit mandates.to play at the highest level (6A currently) as a requisite for them plauong on the UIL?
        Makes sense. For some reason was thinking they could still drop.
        THE HISTORY OF LONGVIEW LOBO FOOTBALL

        1937 1A, 2018 6A DIVISION II STATE CHAMPIONS
        1997
        5A D1, 2008 4A D1, 2009 4A D1 State Finalist
        40 District Championships
        '47, '75, '10, '17 State Semi-Finalist
        '40, '86, '96, '02, '07, '15 State Quarterfinalist
        '04, '11, '12, '13, '20 Regional Finalist
        '83, '85, '87, '89, '91, '93, '01, '06, '14, '19 Area Finalist
        '24, '31, '34, '36, '42, '67, '72, '74, '76, '80, '84, '92, '03, '05, '16 Bi-District Finalist

        Comment


        • Jalen offered by Florida.
          THE HISTORY OF LONGVIEW LOBO FOOTBALL

          1937 1A, 2018 6A DIVISION II STATE CHAMPIONS
          1997
          5A D1, 2008 4A D1, 2009 4A D1 State Finalist
          40 District Championships
          '47, '75, '10, '17 State Semi-Finalist
          '40, '86, '96, '02, '07, '15 State Quarterfinalist
          '04, '11, '12, '13, '20 Regional Finalist
          '83, '85, '87, '89, '91, '93, '01, '06, '14, '19 Area Finalist
          '24, '31, '34, '36, '42, '67, '72, '74, '76, '80, '84, '92, '03, '05, '16 Bi-District Finalist

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Quick View Post

            It's one thing to not have a passing game and then there's another thing to not utilize it. John King, felt like we could "Debo" Denton Ryan's defensive line. I can only imagine if his desperation play calling towards the end of the game had've been utilized all 4 quarters.

            If, he can ever quit being so GD bullheaded as a head coach, he's going to be in the elite category with the Todd Dodges and Scott Surratts of the world. Somebody pass this on to him and tell him I said, he's welcomed!
            Isn’t it as most polled women say, “bullheadedness is the manly way”. It’s called ego wrapped in testosterone. Even so, to a certain extent, I tend agree but at the same time, as a man, I find it difficult to blame him for trying. We, us men, would like to believe our warriors can take on any warriors Mano e Mano until proven differently. Maybe there’s more fault in as you’ve alluded, it was his slowness in making the necessary adjustments that lead to our downfall on that blustery day. Still, with all things considered, I tend to believe that we were just outmanned as opposed to finding unimpeachable fault in his game plan and bullheadedness. Remove 2 players from DR team, which are now gone, and I believe we [and King] finds a way to win that game.

            Now, with respect to Surratt, peoples [lots of peoples seemingly] should reserve their comments when comparing him to King because IMO (most humble), there’s none. My girlfriend sons (2) played for Carthage 2018-2020 during which time I have attended somewhere in the neighborhood of a dozen or so games including scrimmages and 2 SC’s and to put it mildly, I am not upper level impressed with Surratt’s coaching. I’ve seen him get away with some dumb bullheaded-**** too but in 4A that he’d never get away with in 5A Div. 1 and 6A Div.2 where the athleticism is on a whole different level. Just because a particular coaching style is effective at the lower level, does not mean it will carryover to a higher level. In the same vein, coaching success at the HS to College level and College to NFL, does not automatically correlate to success at those higher levels. Just ask Austin Lake Travis. We must remember that LT won 5 consecutive State Championships in 4A, which is the equivalence of today’s 5A. LT haven’t even come close to replicating that same dominance since moving up to 5A/6A (UIL added 6A in 2014). Since 2012 and moving up in classification, LT has managed to play for the Texas State Championship three (3) times, winning once (1) in 2016. That’s winning gold once in 8 years in the upper classification compared to 5 in a row (2007-2011) in the lower classification. Just because you can pull this off in the lower level, a Super Coach and/or Program it does not make at the upper level. Year in and year out Carthage [and Surratt] is one of the largest schools in its Division; on the other hand, Longview [and King] is one of the smallest schools in its Division. Every time Carthage [and Surratt] schedules a 5A team, which is rare I might add, they struggle to win. In 2015 Carthage [and Surratt] lost to Hallsville 39-38 at home and struggled to get past Nacogdoches 28-25 yet they advanced all the 4A semis while Hallsville managed but 7 wins and a second round exit in 5A. That same year, Longview [and King] beat Hallsville like a drum 63-20 and this was with King playing the nice guy role (calling off dogs). Another example was 2018, a year in which Carthage [and Surratt] narrowly escaped Marshall 35-32 thanks to a called back TD, which just happens to be the same year Longview [and King] destroyed Marshall 60-14. That same year Carthage went to the semis in 4A while Marshall was knocked out in round 3 of 5A playoffs. So much for those vacuously-romantics saying Carthage [and Surratt] can beat Longview [and King]. Preposterous - the absurdity of it all! These are just a couple of examples as Surratt avoids playing 5A and higher-level competitive Programs, like avoiding the bubonic plague. This is unlike Aledo and other Texas HS dynasties. This is how he protects the myth of his false legend and over inflated-ego. Listen, 4A competitive level is no match for 5AD1/6AD2 and nor is the coaching capacity of Surratt better than that of Coach King. To assume that it is, is simply not thinking it all the way through. But hey, Critical Thinking is in short supply nowadays. Most peoples of the internet/social media age operate from an emotional frame. Not to mention that Surratt is embroiled in politics that wouldn’t set well in Longview. No Sir, even if made available, IMO, it would prove to be a grave miscarriage to trade “our King” for Surratt (Sir-Rat).

            I do somewhat apologize for this rather verbose rebuttal but in my eyes you levied an unfair diatribe against our Coach K. Sorry but when any of our fans attack our Coach K, that’ll cause a fight with me every time - nothing personal. He’s not perfect but he’s what we’ve got and I can’t think of anyone off the top of my head that I’d trade him for. Peace! 😎

            Go Lobos [and Coach King] all the way to State but first beat DR and HP along the way!!!

            Comment


            • Originally posted by JoeC View Post

              Isn’t it as most polled women say, “bullheadedness is the manly way”. It’s called ego wrapped in testosterone. Even so, to a certain extent, I tend agree but at the same time, as a man, I find it difficult to blame him for trying. We, us men, would like to believe our warriors can take on any warriors Mano e Mano until proven differently. Maybe there’s more fault in as you’ve alluded, it was his slowness in making the necessary adjustments that lead to our downfall on that blustery day. Still, with all things considered, I tend to believe that we were just outmanned as opposed to finding unimpeachable fault in his game plan and bullheadedness. Remove 2 players from DR team, which are now gone, and I believe we [and King] finds a way to win that game.

              Now, with respect to Surratt, peoples [lots of peoples seemingly] should reserve their comments when comparing him to King because IMO (most humble), there’s none. My girlfriend sons (2) played for Carthage 2018-2020 during which time I have attended somewhere in the neighborhood of a dozen or so games including scrimmages and 2 SC’s and to put it mildly, I am not upper level impressed with Surratt’s coaching. I’ve seen him get away with some dumb bullheaded-**** too but in 4A that he’d never get away with in 5A Div. 1 and 6A Div.2 where the athleticism is on a whole different level. Just because a particular coaching style is effective at the lower level, does not mean it will carryover to a higher level. In the same vein, coaching success at the HS to College level and College to NFL, does not automatically correlate to success at those higher levels. Just ask Austin Lake Travis. We must remember that LT won 5 consecutive State Championships in 4A, which is the equivalence of today’s 5A. LT haven’t even come close to replicating that same dominance since moving up to 5A/6A (UIL added 6A in 2014). Since 2012 and moving up in classification, LT has managed to play for the Texas State Championship three (3) times, winning once (1) in 2016. That’s winning gold once in 8 years in the upper classification compared to 5 in a row (2007-2011) in the lower classification. Just because you can pull this off in the lower level, a Super Coach and/or Program it does not make at the upper level. Year in and year out Carthage [and Surratt] is one of the largest schools in its Division; on the other hand, Longview [and King] is one of the smallest schools in its Division. Every time Carthage [and Surratt] schedules a 5A team, which is rare I might add, they struggle to win. In 2015 Carthage [and Surratt] lost to Hallsville 39-38 at home and struggled to get past Nacogdoches 28-25 yet they advanced all the 4A semis while Hallsville managed but 7 wins and a second round exit in 5A. That same year, Longview [and King] beat Hallsville like a drum 63-20 and this was with King playing the nice guy role (calling off dogs). Another example was 2018, a year in which Carthage [and Surratt] narrowly escaped Marshall 35-32 thanks to a called back TD, which just happens to be the same year Longview [and King] destroyed Marshall 60-14. That same year Carthage went to the semis in 4A while Marshall was knocked out in round 3 of 5A playoffs. So much for those vacuously-romantics saying Carthage [and Surratt] can beat Longview [and King]. Preposterous - the absurdity of it all! These are just a couple of examples as Surratt avoids playing 5A and higher-level competitive Programs, like avoiding the bubonic plague. This is unlike Aledo and other Texas HS dynasties. This is how he protects the myth of his false legend and over inflated-ego. Listen, 4A competitive level is no match for 5AD1/6AD2 and nor is the coaching capacity of Surratt better than that of Coach King. To assume that it is, is simply not thinking it all the way through. But hey, Critical Thinking is in short supply nowadays. Most peoples of the internet/social media age operate from an emotional frame. Not to mention that Surratt is embroiled in politics that wouldn’t set well in Longview. No Sir, even if made available, IMO, it would prove to be a grave miscarriage to trade “our King” for Surratt (Sir-Rat).

              I do somewhat apologize for this rather verbose rebuttal but in my eyes you levied an unfair diatribe against our Coach K. Sorry but when any of our fans attack our Coach K, that’ll cause a fight with me every time - nothing personal. He’s not perfect but he’s what we’ve got and I can’t think of anyone off the top of my head that I’d trade him for. Peace! 😎

              Go Lobos [and Coach King] all the way to State but first beat DR and HP along the way!!!
              We atleast can hang and beat 6a teams hints 2018 state title 🐺 I recall when we beat Allen when they were #1 they were 5a(6anow) we were 4a(5a now)

              Comment


              • THE HISTORY OF LONGVIEW LOBO FOOTBALL

                1937 1A, 2018 6A DIVISION II STATE CHAMPIONS
                1997
                5A D1, 2008 4A D1, 2009 4A D1 State Finalist
                40 District Championships
                '47, '75, '10, '17 State Semi-Finalist
                '40, '86, '96, '02, '07, '15 State Quarterfinalist
                '04, '11, '12, '13, '20 Regional Finalist
                '83, '85, '87, '89, '91, '93, '01, '06, '14, '19 Area Finalist
                '24, '31, '34, '36, '42, '67, '72, '74, '76, '80, '84, '92, '03, '05, '16 Bi-District Finalist

                Comment


                • Josh Thomas with offer #1 from ECU.

                  Will be at Elite 11 Sunday.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by LoboFan07 View Post
                    Jalen offered by Florida.
                    What’s the count now? And just think, he hasn’t even made it to his junior season.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by JoeC View Post

                      What’s the count now? And just think, he hasn’t even made it to his junior season.
                      26 crazy some seniors don't have that many

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by WP4L™ View Post
                        Josh Thomas with offer #1 from ECU.

                        Will be at Elite 11 Sunday.
                        Wow really? Most be pretty good then we may have our qb1 then

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by WolverBean View Post

                          Wow really? Most be pretty good then we may have our qb1 then
                          The uproar if this kid comes in and starts the first game...

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by GeeTee View Post

                            The uproar if this kid comes in and starts the first game...
                            Man, if he earns it and we all care about the best players being on the field and we all want to maximize these wideouts as much as possible...there should be zero uproar.

                            Heavy emphasis on earning it, Allen is far ahead of where he was a year ago. Starting to look like a slightly more athletic version of Bivins Caraway. Still need to see his arm strength in the fall.

                            But Thomas is intriguing. I dont think this will be another case of Michael Ross in 85% of 2015, this dude can play. It's hard to give him a comp when comparing him to past Lobo QBs....I guess its more like Pete Robertson but with a much better pure ability to throw the ball.

                            Can't wait to see these two in pads in a few days.
                            Last edited by WP4L™; 04-17-2021, 06:43 PM.

                            Comment


                            • If Allen is QB1, he'll have beaten a QB with a college offer. If he doesnt, our QB1 will be someone with a college offer.

                              Either way, good for us.

                              Comment


                              • I certainly cant remember a year when cold temps were in the forecast for the beginning of spring ball. Crazy.

                                Comment

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